Initial Pairing, Meta Thoughts, Upcoming Tournaments

Having dojoed a ton, ordered lots of new models, assembled a fair bit, painted 3 new models (Sloan, Firefly, Hunter) and played some games it's time to start looking ahead. From what I've got thus far I feel like I have a bit of a feeling of what the other factions are starting to look like as well. At least I have something to work off of. Let's take a closer look!

:: Cryx ::

I still expect Cryx infantry to be a thing but I'm unsure of what numbers they'll bring. I expect Cryx to have one jack caster, e.g. Scaverous, Mortenebra, Venethrax and one more melee oriented, e.g. Goreshade2, Coven, Deneghra1. The lack of our ability to trivially deal with high-def infantry means we probably need one list capable of dealing with anything from double Satyxis Raiders to jack-spam. Haley2 probably isn't a good drop into Cryx any longer compared to our other choices.

:: Convergence ::

I believe the Axis super-recursion is gone, at least until the tier lists appear. Lucant lost ARM-buffs vs shooting. I think we're left with melee-jack oriented builds. Not sure how strong TEP is now. I believe Haley2 might be the right drop here still.

:: Cygnar ::

I'll make this short. I expect we'll see Haley2, Nemo3, Stryker2, Caine2 and Kara Sloan initially. There are other promising casters out there as well but I expect it'll take some time to get used to the new editions and all of the above have list variants that basically write themselves.

:: Protectorate ::

Severius12, Harbinger, Durst and perhaps their synergy caster all look strong now. They can make solid combined arms lists and their shooting + magic potential is still very much a frightening thing to face despite the Choir nerf. With Harbinger's feat nerfed and mandatory battlegroups I expect we'll largely see roughly 3 heavies, 1 light, infantry and support in most list variants.

:: Retribution ::

A solid powerhouse with a multitude of viable builds. From Ossyan shooty lists to Vyros2 jack-spam I think Retribution are top-tier now, alongside Khador. Retribution I believe can force list chicken situations with a lot of their pairings. Handling them means taking on anything from double strike force units to many jacks. Issyria is stronger than ever as well.

:: Khador ::

Buffs galore! This faction got so much this edition. Still, I think battling Khador will largely boil down to what it used to be in Mk. 2: Out-control them. Between Thorn and Haley2 we have a lot of solid tools to build off of and I think this is a solid start against what I expect to be one of the very strongest -if not the strongest- factions of Mk. 3.

:: Mercenaries / Minions ::

I haven't looked too much on these to be honest. They are quite rare as well in my experience. I do however expect combined arms forces with significant shooting from Mercs and speed / anti-def shenanigans from Minions.

:: Skorne ::

They look nerfed to me. A couple of casters like Rasheth present issues due to anti-tech like Castigate. Outside of that I think we'll be fine against them with our normal lists. Despite their anti-shooting being nerfed I'm still reluctant to drop pure shooting lists into them. Depends on what casters they'll gravitate towards though.

:: Legion ::

Personally I believe that Vayl2/Lylyth2 and Ravagore/Angelius still look like the best places to start. I really struggle making lists though so it could be that I'm just blinded by their Mk. 2 incarnations. Regardless of what Legion field I feel that Sloan is a solid drop for us.

:: Trollbloods ::

Bricky, bricky, bricky. One of Trolls' biggest weaknesses has always been control in my opinion. I believe Haley2 should still be able to favourably play attrition against them. Shooting however is a very dicey proposition: You can't reach the critical mass we had in Mk. 2 and they have some pretty strong anti-shooting tech now.

So what we see, all in all, is in my opinion 4 army variants:
- Shooty lists such as Sloan and Ossyan
- Control/denial based lists such as Haley2 and Deneghra1
- ARM-skew such as Butcher3 multiple heavies, Durst and Trollbloods MMM
- Combined arms lists such as Severius1 and Vayl2

Shooty lists: In a guns-vs-guns scenario I struggle to see a list that goes beyond neutral vs Sloan. Being top dog in the shooting game is always key if you intend to play pure shooting and I believe she does it the best.

Control/denial based lists: Sloan, like Lylyth2 in Mk. 2, simply outranges most of these threats and thus doesn't necessarily care as much about what they do because she shoots things down first. Haley2 can also contest a lot of these lists and at least get an even matchup.

ARM-skew I could see as being problematic. Nemo3 and Stryker3 present some interesting potential solutions to this problem. As of now I have faith in Haley2's control elements bringing her through. I doubt our shooty lists can play these matchups.

Combined arms are tricky. The Protectorate in particular poses an interesting question: What will you drop when the Choir basically negates Sloan's battlegroup? I hope Haley2 is enough now that Domination works on character jacks but they do look scary.

So how does this all map out? It's time to recap and take a look at my lists which I've ran recently and/or mused about.

Sloan will be the primary caster if we look at the matchups. I believe she'll drop into Cryx, Cygnar, some variants of Retribution, Mercs, Minions, some variants of Skorne and lastly Legion. Her list looks like this:

Sloan
- Reinholdt
- Stormwall
- Hunter
- Hunter
- Firefly
- Firefly
Junior
- Charger
Arlan Strangeways
Alten Ashley

Onto the second caster then, which is of course Haley2.

Let's head straight to the list:

Haley2
- Squire
- Stormwall
- Thorn
Junior
- Charger
Ragman
Gobber Tinker
Arlan Strangeways
Storm Lances (max)

A lot of playtesting is needed here. I am certain that Haley2 + Squire + Thorn is the right place to start. Apart from that I have a thousand questions that only playtesting can answer: Is the army durable enough not to be blown apart by the Protectorate? Can she win a game of attrition vs Lucant? Can Trolls spam too much ARM for her? Is Khador too strong now? Her intended matchups are Convergence, Protectorate, some variants of Mercenaries/Minions, Trollbloods and some variants of Skorne. If Retribution turns away from their shooting she might be a solid drop here as well. She's certainly better than Sloan into Vyros2 for example.

The good part about this pair is that I'm nearly done painting the models. I am awaiting the last handful or so but that means I can finish the lists quickly so as not to rush a paint job for a tournament requirement. Speaking of tournaments there are a few coming up. The summer is naturally quiet but I have at least 1 tournament in July (possibly 2), one in August and 2 in September. Between taking a summer vacation and time flying by I figure it's as good a time as any to start considering matchups and pairings now. All that remains is to play more games and figure out what works and what doesn't.